Polar Vortex – 2, Summer Style

July 10, 2014

With the renewed chatter of the “Polar Vortex” summer style 2014, I thought that it might be a good idea to look back at last summer, and the flow pattern that was in place at the beginning of July 2013.

The 120 hour forecast, one of the images that I had archived, during the beginning of last Summer’s monsoon, is shown below.  This pattern, with the monster ridge of high pressure over the Mountain West and a complementary trough in the middle of the nation, is not that dissimilar to the set-up due this coming week, 13-17 July 2014.  What is really different is the DEPTH of the trough of low pressure.  As the center value, lowest number, is in the 573 range, where this year, 2014, the value is in the mid 550s.  Substantially lower, in fact about 2.5 Stand deviations below normal.

For comparison sake, the last image is from early January 2014 showing the very same jet stream pattern, but with far far colder values.  The lowest value, over Lower Michigan in in the lower 490s.

What does that value mean?  490 mean 4900 meters at the 500Mb level, the half-way up, pressure wise through the atmosphere.  The colder it is the more dense and compressed the gasses of the atmosphere become.  During the the summer months the typical value should be in mid 580s, equating to high temperatures in the 80s and lower 90s.

Our summer weather in North America peaked in heat during the summers of 2011 and 2012, last year was markedly cooler and this summer will be cooler yet.

500 mb Forecast for 00z 3 July 2013

500milibar forecast for 00z 3 July 2013

The 120 Hour forecast for the morning of Tuesday 7/15/2014

The 120 Hour forecast for the morning of Tuesday 7/15/2014

A look at the Polar Vortex from this past January 7th 2014.

A look at the Polar Vortex from this past January 7th 2014.

3 thoughts on “Polar Vortex – 2, Summer Style

  1. Very interesting!

    My gut was telling me something weird was happening when local weatherman said that a cold front was bringing “monsoon-like” weather to Abq NM where I live. Last year I was very suprised at the extensiveness of the storms Albuquerque recieved along with the September rains. Abq even had a powerfull and oddly southbound traveling cyclone in late July!
    What I see different about the comparison maps is opposite color over Abq this year than last year, and I will point out that the last few days the weatherman has been generous with percentage chances of local storms as Abq is turning out to have an overall dryer start to monsoon officially compared with last year. Yes a couple weeks ago we had some powerful storms but I wonder if the tap is getting turned off this summer compared to last summer even though the “vortex” over the greatlakes is similar. And will we see the vortex return next winter to either block the effects of El Nino and keep the southwest dry for 2014/2015 winter? Not good to have damaging cold midwest and mega drought southwest as the economy slides into depression! Gotta wonder what is truly the source of the votex low preasure zones.

  2. One more thing about comparing the preasure zones July 2013 vs July 2014 is this year we have that long east-west oriented zone of higher preasure over southwest while last years there is a “spike” of zones northward over all the mountain states. Last year again much better than average monsoon for southwest, but I wonder if again the monsoon air is getting blocked abruptly mid july which is devestating especially for NM mountain regions like the Sandias and Zuni Mtns! I have to ask if New Mexicans are going to have to be on high wildfire alert all through this summer and into fall and winter? There’s not enough wildfire fighting resources in this state!

  3. On a different subject what are your thoughts on the two tropical storms heading toward the islands? Maybe just coincidence or is it possibly influenced by Haarp-Tesla technology?

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