The End of the Western Drought

13 August 2015

This summer season is quickly winding down as we cross into and through the middle of August. The Sun has slipped south to the point at which it was on April 27th, overhead at 14.5 degrees north latitude… The length of days will now begin to grow shorter at the fastest pace between now and the end of October, losing about 3 minutes of daylight each day between now and then at latitude 40 degrees north. Visualize the Sun cresting a sine wave and we’ve spent the past three months at the peak of the wave and now have begin the quick downward descent. Or the minute hand of a clock sweeping past the 2 o’clock position.

This whole climate chaos keeps banging around in my head for the latter part of September… I know, it’s a whole other topic, but is it?

So, this evening I’m reviewing the weather forecast simulations for the next 15 days. The weather models have been all over the place… Read the discussion from the WPC (Weather Prediction Center #WPC) Just as an example of how “all over the place” weather forecasting can be, especially at the longer time frames.. I’ve screen grabbed the 14-day upper air forecast for North America for your review & comparison. What initially had my attention was the third image, the one with the big circular storm just off the Pacific Northwest Coast. Dang, that is an early winter type of event! Certainly not one that should happen too long before Halloween week, yet here it is. Now, the computer simulations are run each six hours, and the previous three runs are also presented here for your comparison. Only one computer run has this storm, this large and this close to the PacNW Coast. Yet, there it is. It is arrowed-highlighted in the previous computer runs.

Now, from this weeks update, this El Nino is going to be an INTENSE one. I went out on a limb back on the 23rd of July, scroll down my Timeline and read the post as it’s as valid today as it was then. I stated that a lot of rain is coming this winter to the West. I do mean a lot! (For California I forecast 25″ to >100″ liquid precipitation.) So, I suppose what I am getting at, is this model is forecasting an end of summer (growing season at elevations above 4000 feet) cold episode for the PacNW/Northern Rockies by the end of this month.

Is this the beginnings of “climate chaos” as stated by the French Foreign Minister back in May of 2014? Where these storms are so big, so out of season, and with the Pacific so bloody warm that the quantity of water vapor coming off of it so great that when these cold storms develop the precipitation is so historic that the Western drought is quickly replaced by flooding? Recall that the Oklahoma and Texas had their four year drought ended in just six weeks earlier this summer by enduring their wettest month of May in 121 years!

Either way, rain is coming to the parched West. Hang in there, then just hang on as the water rises!

 

-Scott Stevens
Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion 2015-08-13 22-45-27 WPC's Extended Forecast Discussion 2015-08-13 22-27-39 COD Meteorology -- Numerical Model Data 2015-08-13 22-00-19 COD Meteorology -- Numerical Model Data 2015-08-13 21-59-27 COD Meteorology -- Numerical Model Data 2015-08-13 21-57-31

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